According to Dr Nakhle, vociferous debates over the impending death of US shale has been caused by a fuzzy conflation of projections made for different time-frames and economic realities. Some are short-term projections, others long-term, and what we hear is a convenient hotchpotch of the two based on people’s biases. Is the US shale party over? For some smaller players with poor gearing, lack of access to credit and mediocre acreage it almost certainly is.
Over the medium- to long-term, the structure of the industry is changing in such a way that the smaller players who have been there for a while are the ones who are struggling. But that doesn’t mean the party is over for the shale industry as scaling and strategic investment by oil majors suggests Big Oil is stepping into the breach armed with efficiencies of scale.
“A New Oil Era: How US Tight Oil Mutes Middle East Tensions”, Dr Carole Nakhle, Aug 2019
“The disruptive power of American tight oil”, Dr Carole Nakhle, July 2019
“GIS Dossier: The shale gas revolution”, Dr Carole Nakhle, May 2019
“The U.S. shale revolution continues to alter gas markets”, Dr Carole Nakhle, Apr 2019