East-West Pipeline disruption highlights wider energy risks

Key takeaways:

• The East-West Pipeline gives Saudi Arabia an important alternative to shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Pipelines cannot make Hormuz redundant because fixed infrastructure remains highly vulnerable to military attacks.
• Alternative export routes can strengthen resilience, but they cannot replace the need for a political solution.
• Diesel shortages could have a greater economic impact than crude oil shortages because diesel is essential for transport and trade.
• Diesel supply is already under pressure from disruptions affecting Middle Eastern refining, Russian production and Chinese refinery activity.
• Saudi Arabia is likely to remain cautious because its pipelines, refineries and major oil installations remain exposed to further attacks.
• The continued ability of regional adversaries to strike critical infrastructure will shape Riyadh’s response.