Christof Rühl, Global Advisor at Crystol Energy, joined Gulf Intelligence‘s Dyala Sabbagh on Half Time Talk to discuss the latest developments in global energy markets, oil price volatility, and the wider macroeconomic outlook.
The discussion focused on the continuing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, the resilience of global oil flows, and the role of inventories, refining flexibility, demand adjustment, and geopolitics in shaping market expectations.
Key takeaways:
Oil prices have risen less than expected, despite the scale of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
The market is showing that the global oil system can adjust more quickly than many forecasts suggest.
Time is not only a risk factor in this crisis. It also allows supply chains, refiners, inventories, and consumers to adapt.
Refining flexibility has helped reduce pressure, as fuel flows shift across regions and products.
Demand adjustment may already be stronger than official estimates suggest, particularly in China.
If the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully, physical oil flows could normalize faster than many expect.
Current oil prices are not exceptionally high when adjusted for inflation and the lower oil intensity of the global economy.
A severe economic shock would likely require much higher oil prices or further physical damage to energy infrastructure.
Trade tariffs have had a less dramatic short term impact than feared, but economic fragmentation remains a long term risk.
Russia remains a wildcard, as Ukrainian attacks on refining infrastructure add new uncertainty to global energy markets.
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