Dr Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, spoke to The Insider about the UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+. She explained that the move is significant both symbolically and practically, as it may reflect internal tensions over quotas and compliance within the group. Despite its importance, she noted that short term oil prices remain driven mainly by the war involving Iran and related supply risks, making the UAE’s exit a secondary factor for now.
Oil production shares
Over the longer term, markets will assess the UAE’s decision alongside global demand trends, supply developments in countries such as Venezuela, and the future direction of OPEC+ policy. Dr Nakhle highlighted that the UAE’s ability to increase output outside quota constraints is only one part of a broader and evolving market dynamic. The overall impact on prices will depend on how these factors interact over time.
She also stressed that Saudi Arabia’s role as the main anchor of OPEC will become even more central following the UAE’s departure. At the same time, the UAE will gain greater flexibility to maximize output and prioritize market share, which could increase competition and add downward pressure on prices depending on market conditions. Nevertheless, OPEC is expected to remain an important player, even if its overall influence is reduced.
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