Oil between panic scenarios and real market fundamentals

Key takeaways from the interview:

• Many figures discussed in the media today are based on possible scenarios rather than firm forecasts. These scenarios can help explain what could happen under certain assumptions, but they should not be treated as the most likely outcome.

• Oil prices cannot be predicted with certainty on a specific date. Previous extreme forecasts, including those made during past market shocks, show why headline price projections should be treated with caution.

• The Strait of Hormuz crisis is serious and has already removed a significant volume of barrels from the market. This has pushed prices higher, but the increase has not been as sharp as some initial scenarios suggested.

• Higher supply from the United States and other producers has helped soften the impact of the disruption. At the same time, demand growth has not been strong enough to turn the shock into a more severe price surge.

• Oil inventories have declined and could come under more pressure during the summer. However, inventories are only one part of the picture, as demand patterns are also changing in response to higher prices and broader uncertainty.

• Demand, supply, and inventories are all moving at the same time. This makes the market picture highly fluid, meaning current conditions may look different by the summer.

• Developments related to the UAE, Venezuela, and Russia could influence oil market dynamics beyond the immediate crisis. These structural shifts may reshape how the market responds to future supply shocks.