In this interview given to Rotus Oddiri from Arise News, Christof Rühl, Global Advisor at Crystol Energy and Senior Research Scholar at the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy, discusses the latest developments in oil prices, the U.S-Ukraine Mineral deal, and Europe’s quest to spend more money on Defence.
Key takeaways:
– The key to analyzing oil prices lies in long-term market fundamentals, which currently indicate an oversupply. Despite short-term disruptions from tariffs and geopolitical developments, this surplus is exerting downward pressure on prices.
– The proposed US-Ukrainian mineral deal appears to be a strategic maneuver by the US, signalling attempts to lay some groundwork for a longer-term peace agreement.
– With Friedrich Merz, a conservative leading the new German government, the chances of improved EU-Russia energy ties remain slim. Merz is not aligned with the faction advocating stronger relations with Moscow.
– While Europe historically depended on Russian gas, the war in Ukraine has accelerated its diversification of energy imports. Even with a potential peace deal, the EU is unlikely to return to a heavy reliance on Russian gas, posing long-term economic challenges and the risk of stranded assets for Russia.
– As trade tensions rise under a potential Trump administration, global economic strategies are shifting. The UK’s visit to China in March highlights ongoing discussions on renewable energy and natural gas cooperation.
Related Analysis
“Oil markets face uncertainty amid changing geopolitics“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Feb 2025
“Trump should call on Opec in his bid to negotiate with Putin“, Christof Rühl, Jan 2025
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