In this Bloomberg interview with Joumana Berteche, Dr Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, shared her views on oil demand, supply dynamics and the changing role of key institutions that shape the energy debate. The discussion explored how OPEC, United States shale producers, China and the International Energy Agency are responding to a more uncertain outlook for the global economy and energy transition.
Key takeaways:
OPEC remains the most bullish voice on future oil demand, but its latest downward revisions point to a reality check as the wider market expects slower growth.
Even with subdued prices, the resilience of producers in the United States is often underestimated, as a leaner and more mature shale sector continues to deliver supply growth.
China’s continued buying to fill its oil inventories has provided an important cushion for prices in an otherwise softer market.
Sanctions on Russia, including the overseas activities of companies such as Lukoil, are tightening the supply side and their impact will grow the longer they remain in place.
Any operator dealing with Russian entities should have expected the sanctions risk in advance, which reduces the likelihood of a sudden and sharp spike in prices.
The International Energy Agency has shifted its narrative, from saying in twenty twenty one that no new oil and gas fields were needed in a net zero pathway to now presenting policy scenarios where oil demand peaks only by twenty fifty. This evolution has raised fresh questions about possible political influence on its outlooks.
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“IEA: oil and gas demand to grow for the next 25 years“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Apr 2025
