Brent crude ended November near sixty three dollars a barrel, its weakest monthly average in more than four years. Market sentiment is turning more bearish as supply grows faster than demand and geopolitical risks shift. In a conversation with Paul Allen on Bloomberg, Dr Carole Nakhle examined how OPEC plus decisions, possible peace talks, and conflict risks from Russia to Venezuela could shape the path for oil prices in twenty twenty six.
Key takeaways:
OPEC plus remains the main active manager of oil supply, while geopolitics from Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela continues to be the key wildcard.
A possible Russia Ukraine peace deal would ease the geopolitical risk premium and reduce infrastructure attacks, allowing Russian flows to normalise without a sudden flood of oil.
Venezuela’s industry is a shadow of its nineteen eighties and nineteen nineties peak, and any escalation in the current political context could remove more barrels from the market.
Bearish sentiment dominates many outlooks, with scenarios of Brent heading toward forty dollars, so OPEC plus cannot simply wait and see, and the current pause in hikes reflects a clear focus on price stability.
For 2026, supply is still set to grow much faster than demand, while Chinese stock building and lingering sanctions keep a fragile buffer that could quickly fade if conditions change.
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