Christof Rühl Comments on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Christof Rühl, Global Advisor at Crystol Energy, was interviewed by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on the risks facing Iran’s oil production and the wider implications of the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Commenting on claims that Iran may soon be forced to shut down production because of limited storage capacity, Rühl argued that such assumptions overstate the technical risks. While shutting in oil wells can damage reservoirs, the impact depends on the condition of the fields, the quality of maintenance, and the duration of the shutdown.

He also challenged the idea that Iran’s oil infrastructure could face an imminent collapse. Iran, he noted, has strong technical expertise and has managed fluctuating export conditions before, including during the Iran Iraq War.

Rühl further highlighted that the global oil market is more resilient than many headlines suggest. Oil is less central to the global economy than it was 50 years ago, while alternative export routes from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and the UAE can partly offset the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.

Taking these overland alternatives into account, Rühl estimated that a closure of the Strait would reduce global crude deliveries by around 12 to 15 percent, rather than 20 percent.