According to Dr Nakhle, neither Europe nor Russia will benefit from restricted gas supplies, at least not in the short term. Europe will suffer from higher gas prices that will further fuel inflation. Europe simply cannot replace all of the Russian gas volumes and surely not overnight. Russia will lose its most valuable gas export revenues.
Over time, the market will clear. Higher gas prices have already attracted supplies primarily from the US, Norway, North Africa and Qatar. It just takes time.
“No endgame for Ukraine“, Christof Rühl, Feb 2022
“Can Europe completely cut its reliance on Russian energy supplies?“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Mar 2022
“Can Europe decrease its reliance on Russian gas?“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Mar 2022
“Russia, OPEC+, Europe and Energy Markets“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Mar 2022
“Can Russia withstand another wave of sanctions?“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Feb 2022
“EU Energy Policy amidst the Current Gas Crisis“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Feb 2022