The additional barrels we could see depend on the type of agreement to be reached (if it is reached). For instance, if a comprehensive agreement is adopted, Iran will increase its production from 2.5 million barrels per day (M/d) to 3.8 M/d within six months, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The Bank of America states that, if such an agreement is concluded with Iran, the price of the barrel will decrease to $70 per barrel.
China will continue to be a key buyer of Iranian oil. Even under maximum pressure pursued by the Trump Administration, China continued to buy Iranian oil and, recently, Chinese refineries officially stated such purchases.
Iran’s long-term ability to increase its capacity will continue to be hampered by limited investment. It will, however, create interesting dynamics within OPEC as the loss of its market share has been captured by Iraq and the UAE.
Watch the full discussion (in Arabic):
“Iran and the West: What will happen if a deal is reached?“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Dec 2021
“Iran’s attempts to surpass US sanctions on oil exports“, Dr Carole Nakhke, Jul 2021
“US shale recovery, Iranian exports and oil demand outlook“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jul 2021