- The upward revisions of economic growth in the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s latest economic outlook is a positive step but it is still early to conclude confidently that the world economy will avoid a recession in 2023.
- The decrease in energy and food prices have played an important role. Oil prices reached a peak of 130 $/bbl in March 2022 but are now trading below 90 $/bbl.
- China’s abandonment of zero-covid policy has also had a positive spill over effect on the world economic outlook.
- Lower income economies with high debt levels are still expected to suffer due to heightened payments on interests and pressures in their current account balances. Unless these countries adopt significant reforms, their economic outlook will remain gloomy.
- A recovery in the outlook of the world’s major economic blocs (such as the US, China and the EU) can provide additional support to struggling developing economies due to increased investment and aid.
Watch the discussion (in Arabic):
“Oil markets: An early peek into 2023“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jan 2023
“The role of China in oil markets“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jan 2023
“What is the Outlook for Commodities in the Wake of Peak Inflation & Peak Rate Tightening Cycle in 2023?“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jan 2023
“Outlook for oil and gas markets for 2023“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jan 2023