In a feature published by Upstream, Dr. Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy and a regular markets commentator, explains why crude prices have been moving higher in recent weeks as tensions in the Middle East intensified.
She said markets have been pricing in a high probability of conflict, which has supported prices and kept traders focused on geopolitical risk.
Iran oil production
She also stressed that the risk premium is not mainly driven by fears of reduced Iranian output or exports. Instead, the bigger concern is the potential spillover into neighbouring producers.
The key risk, she argues, is retaliation that could involve attacks on energy infrastructure in nearby countries that are major oil producers. Any disruption to those operations could trigger far greater volatility than changes in Iranian barrels alone.
Related Comments
“Oil Markets and War Risk: Pricing a US–Iran Escalation“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Feb 2026
“Iran risks oil volatility and the case for diplomacy” Christof Rühl, Feb 2026
