Christof Rühl, Global Advisor at Crystol Energy and Senior Research Scholar at Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy, spoke with Dan Murphy on CNBC about the future of oil demand and the energy transition. He explained that efficiency gains could push oil demand to peak by 2029. At the same time, fossil fuels will likely remain the main energy source through 2040 unless a major technological breakthrough occurs.
Key highlights:
- Oil demand peak by 2029: Efficiency gains in transport, plastics, and aviation are reducing oil use. As a result, global demand could peak before the end of the decade.
- OPEC vs. IEA forecasts: OPEC projects steady growth, while the IEA, oil companies, and investors expect demand to level off within the next 10 years.
- Energy transition narrative shift: Renewables alone cannot meet demand because of intermittency. Therefore, fossil fuels and renewables must work together in the near term.
- Technology and consumer behavior: Hybrid cars, gas replacing coal, and fossil fuels as backup all show how different energy sources complement each other.
- 2040 energy mix outlook: Fossil fuels currently make up about 85% of global energy. Their share may shrink slowly, but they will still dominate through 2040 unless new technology changes the picture.
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