Dr Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, joined the Arab Gulf States Institute for its discussion Global Energy Dynamics 2026: Oil, Politics, and Power Plays From Washington to the Gulf, held on 17 February 2026. She shared a clear view on how risk, strategy, and market structure are evolving as 2026 begins, with geopolitics shaping price signals and policy choices affecting long term positioning.
Key takeaways from her remarks include:
- The Middle East remains the only region still burning large volumes of oil for power generation, which weakens export value and destroys economic rent.
- Gulf producers have not abandoned expansion plans. Timelines may shift, but the competitive advantage remains, driven by low cost supply and scale.
- Since the start of 2026, geopolitics has been the dominant driver of oil prices, often moving markets more than near term fundamentals.
- Iran is a key source of tail risk. If negotiations unravel, the range of potential outcomes is wide and the downside scenarios are difficult to map.
Dr. Nakhle was joined by Aldo R. Flores Quiroga, former Deputy Secretary of Energy for Hydrocarbons at Mexico’s Ministry of Energy and former Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, and Harry Tchilliguirian, Former Group Head of Research at Onyx Capital. The session was moderated by Kate Dourian, Non Resident Fellow at AGSI, Contributing Editor at MEES, and Fellow of the Energy Institute.
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