In this interview given to Abdullah Al Subaiae from Asharq Business, Dr. Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, discusses the effect of geopolitical tensions and market fundamentals on oil prices.
Key takeaways:
– We are seeing divergent views reflecting the high level of uncertainty. OPEC, for instance, is much more bullish than the IEA in terms of oil demand growth, with a gap of 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) growth for this year between the two agencies.
– Interestingly, despite the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the Houthis attacks in the Red Sea, the IEA is expecting the oil market to be in surplus. That is a completely different position from 2022 when the IEA warned of a major supply shock at the onset of the war in Ukraine.
– Although non-OPEC supply growth is expected to decelerate, it will still outstrip that of global oil demand.
– OPEC+ will therefore play a crucial role in maintaining a floor on oil prices.
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