Some of the key takeaways from the interview:
- A complete shutoff of Russian gas is always on the table, therefore the key today for Europe is to fill its gas storage ahead of winter.
- Gas storage levels this year are healthier than the levels of 2021. It is unclear though whether the EU countries will hit their ambitious targets (95% for many) by the end of the year. This will depend on savings in gas consumption and the severity of the winter season.
- The OPEC+ meeting in August is particularly interesting it is the first after President Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia as well as the first meeting without a pre-arranged agreement.
- Russia might support an increase in production depending on what it is getting in return.
- So far, OPEC+ has maintained a united front and conditions have widely varied from the March 2020 oil price war. The united stance has been largely maintained by the de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, as it strives to balance between keeping the Americans and Russians satisfied simultaneously.
“Russia’s oil is in long-term decline – and the war has only added to the problem“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jul 2022
“Energy Sanctions and the Global Economy: Mandated vs Unilateral Sanctions“, Christof Rühl, May 2022
“Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices“, Christof Rühl, Apr 2022
“Nord Stream 1: Why is Russia cutting gas supplies to Europe?“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jul 2022
“Russia’s war help Qatar reassert its importance“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jul 2022