Global Economy and Energy Markets Weekly Commentary – 13 Mar ‘26

Key takeaways:

• Oil markets are reacting to uncertainty rather than pricing in catastrophe. Prices have moved higher, but the response remains more restrained than the headlines might suggest because the market entered the crisis with some cushion.
• Supply growth from outside the Middle East, together with the continued flow of sanctioned barrels from Russia, Venezuela and Iran, has helped reinforce market resilience and limit the scale of the reaction so far.
• The real turning point would come if Gulf producers were drawn directly into the conflict or if critical energy infrastructure suffered lasting damage, as this would materially change the supply outlook and could trigger a much sharper rise in prices.
• Volatility should not be confused with structural scarcity, as markets are moving with changing expectations around escalation and de escalation rather than responding to an immediate physical shortage of oil.
• Even if military operations stop quickly, the economic consequences for the region may last longer, with investor confidence, tourism, and broader perceptions of stability taking time to recover.