Oil & gas markets and geopolitics

In this interview with Nour Amache from Asharq Business Bloomberg, Dr Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, discusses the current dynamics of the European gas markets amidst the tensions over Ukraine and provides an outlook for the oil markets for 2022.

A relatively warmer than usual winter has moderated demand for electricity and heating, thereby softening the impact of the gas crisis. The statement of US President Biden on killing Nord Stream II gas pipeline should Russia invade Ukraine will impact future gas supplies to Europe. However, higher prices have attracted and will continue to attract supplies particularly from Norway, Qatar, North Africa and the US while the dynamics in Asian markets will continue to influence LNG prices.

The current US position with respect to Nord Stream II is aligned with former President Trump’s stance. In 2018, the US and EU announced cooperation on energy whereby the US committed to supporting the EU in its energy diversification strategy and which would include obtaining more LNG from the US to help the continent reduce its dependence on Russian gas.

On the nuclear talks with Iran, Dr Nakhle said that major investment banks have already factored in that a deal is likely to be reached this year and which would exercise a downward pressure on oil prices. In addition to Iranian supply, any de-escalation of the Ukrainian problem will also reduce the geopolitical risk premium. Furthermore, additional supplies particularly from the US, Norway, Canada, Brazil and Guyana are expected to hit the market this year.