In this interview given to Maya Hojeij from Asharq Business Bloomberg, Dr Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, discussed the volatility in oil prices witnessed in February and March 2021, arguing that this is expected but it should not distract our focus from the overall direction of oil markets.
The fundamentals are supporting upward pressure on prices but a major risk remains: Covid-19 – neither the virus has been brought under control nor vaccination is carried out at a rapid speed around the world.
On the price outlook between major banks and oil companies, Dr Nakhle clarified that the figures reported cover different timeframes – quarterly versus yearly. Caution continues to be recommended.
Throughout the last few years, the geopolitical risk premium has shrunk significantly, and is unlikely to play a major role in a market where demand is not growing rapidly, inventories are full and OPEC crude spare capacity is high.
“New Opportunities 2021: Some optimism for oil markets“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Feb 2021
“OPEC’s decision to keep output unchanged and oil markets“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Mar 2021
“Global Economy and Energy Markets Weekly Commentary – 7th Mar ’21“, Christof Rühl, Mar 2021