Dr Nakhle argues that OPEC+ has recently accustomed us to suspense ahead of each meeting though the drama that preceded the Dec 2020 meeting was missing this time. However, divisions within the organization remains with producers such as Russia and Kazakhstan favouring a relaxation of the cuts by another 500,000 barrels per day, and those such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait adopting a more cautious stance. While market conditions may support additional barrels without putting significant downward pressure on prices, at the end it all depends on the price level that is deemed satisfactory for the producers’ group.
Dr Nakhle also discussed the key factors that will determine the market outlook for this year, mainly: the ability to contain Covid-19, economic and oil demand growth, and, of course on the supply side, OPEC+ discipline as well as US shale, where producers’ sentiment is boosted by higher prices.
Watch the interview (in Arabic)
“Oil market outlook: Striking a delicate balance“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Dec 2020
“Oil market outlook: A quandary for OPEC+“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Sep 2020
“Oil Market Outlook and OPEC+ Dynamics amid COVID-19“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Dec 2020