How the Iran war is reshaping energy markets

Key takeaways from Dr. Nakhle’s contribution included:

• Energy markets are entering a new phase, as major supply and demand shocks often lead to lasting structural changes.
• The UAE’s exit from OPEC marks a significant shift in Gulf energy dynamics and could influence how other producers assess their role in the group.
• Short term price movements should be treated with caution, as energy markets are complex and often adjust faster than expected.
• Predictions of imminent fuel shortages should not be taken as certainty, especially as markets can respond through supply adjustments, demand shifts, and alternative flows.
• For Gulf energy producers, energy security is no longer only about securing demand. It is also about ensuring that oil and gas can physically reach global markets.
• The crisis may accelerate investment in alternative export routes, stronger infrastructure resilience, and regional energy interconnections.
• LNG deserves closer attention in the long term because global supply is highly concentrated among a small number of major exporters.
• As gas markets become more global, volatility will become a more common feature of the market.
• The crisis may also push Gulf economies to reassess their diversification models, especially where new sectors still depend directly or indirectly on oil revenues.