Key points covered during the discussion:
- Russian oil barrels have been redirected to Asia. In May, Russia became China’s largest oil supplier overtaking Saudi Arabia.
- Since Russian oil supplies have been redirected, oil prices have relatively moderated compared to earlier in March when they spiked.
- Even before the war in Ukraine, Russia’s energy strategy identifies Asia as a strategic growing market for its energy exports. The war in Ukraine has acted as a catalyst to accelerate that trend.
- Probably the biggest risk for oil markets today is a global recession.
“Energy Sanctions and the Global Economy: Mandated vs Unilateral Sanctions“, Christof Rühl, May 2022
“Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices“, Christof Rühl, Apr 2022
“Energy Markets and the Design of Sanctions on Russia“, Christof Rühl, Mar 2022
“Global Economy and Energy Markets Weekly Commentary – 23rd Jun ’22“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jun 2022
“Is Moscow turning to Asia?“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Apr 2022