Some of the main points covered during the discussion:
- One can have two interpretations of the move: one is purely commercial whereby Saudi Arabia expects strong demand in Asia. The other one is more strategic to facilitate the reallocation of oil flow thereby helping to easing the pain in Europe while giving a little help to their strategic allies – Russia – in Asia.
- Two major forces are currently driving the oil markets in opposite directions: On one side, the fear of a global economic recession is weighing down on prices. On the other side, the fear of a disruption in Russian oil trade due to sanctions is putting an upward pressure on prices. The next few months will unveil which force will have the upper hand.
“Russia’s oil is in long-term decline – and the war has only added to the problem“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jul 2022
“Energy Sanctions and the Global Economy: Mandated vs Unilateral Sanctions“, Christof Rühl, May 2022
“Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices“, Christof Rühl, Apr 2022
“Biden set sights on pledge for more oil from Gulf allies“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jul 2022
“OPEC+ alone can’t fix Joe Biden’s oil problem“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Jul 2022