Some of the points raised during the discussion are:
- The EU has opted for the most sensible (and practical) way to impose sanctions on Russian oil. An immediate embargo would have caused significant economic burden.
- It is easier to find alternative supplies to Russia’s oil than to its gas, simply because of the global nature of oil markets. Apart from OPEC+ production increases, additional supplies are expected to hit the market in the coming months, primarily from North America.
- But it is not only a supply side story. Demand outlook should also be considered especially in the light of high energy prices and a gloomier economic prospect.
- While Asia is an increasingly important market for Russia, it won’t be able to absorb all the Russian oil diverted from Europe in a short period of time. This will translate into a loss in Russian productive capacity.
- Tariffs on Russian oil imports to Europe can increase the compliance levels of all EU members with respect to the ban.
“Energy Sanctions and the Global Economy: Mandated vs Unilateral Sanctions“, Christof Rühl, May 2022
“Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices“, Christof Rühl, Apr 2022
“Energy Markets and the Design of Sanctions on Russia“, Christof Rühl, Mar 2022
“A new oil cartel?“, Dr Carole Nakhle, May 2022
“EU Sanctions on Russian Oil“, Dr Carole Nakhle, May 2022
“EU Talks to Ban Russian Oil“, Dr Carole Nakhle, May 2022
“Rubles in exchange for gas exports“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Apr 2022