India’s purchase of Russian oil decrease

– Russia was India’s largest oil supplier in 2023, and India became one of Russia’s most important customers, helping the Kremlin to compensate for some of the losses in the European market.

– However, in recent months we have seen a decrease in the oil trade between Russia and India, with the latter pursuing the diversification of suppliers, for several reasons, including strategic, commercial but also political.

– The growth in non-OPEC production is largely coming from the US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana. Although that growth is expected to decelerate this year, the impact depends on demand outlook. If one follows the IEA’s projections, then the growth in non-OPEC supply will still outweigh demand growth, in contrast to OPEC’s expectations of a tight market.